Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $34,151$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,908.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(33,908.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,839$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(54.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,579.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 60.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,579.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,855$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $99,483$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,240.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(138,240.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,914$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(70.2 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,157.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,157.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,045$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $271,885$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(4.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{679,677.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 69.3)}}\) (asimptote \(679,677.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,983$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(403 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,053.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,053.1\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $147,108$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,579$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(948 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $509$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(30.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{729.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(729.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,563$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,481$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(54.9 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,873.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 70.1)}}\) (asimptote \(12,873.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $189$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(9.59 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{619.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(619.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,759$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,935$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(570 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,101.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(51,101.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $613$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(49 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{787.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(787.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,272$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,809$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(626 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,400.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 62.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,400.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $393$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(41.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{470.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(470.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,544$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $738$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{713.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(713.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(20.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $139$ on 2020-05-19
